There Will Never Be One Phone To Rule Them All
Do we need all these different models and variants of smartphones coming out? Ewan thinks so...
Nokia’s announcement yesterday of the E71 and E65 continued the progression of the Finnish company tailoring the feature set of their devices to specific market segments. Alongside the broad strokes of the Eseries (Enterprise) and Nseries (Multimedia) labels, the individual models are becoming more and more separated, especially in the Eseries range. Given the timing of the announcements, it’s also natural (if a bit fortuitous) for people to compare these devices to the iPhone 3G announced last week; more so given the enterprise features added to Apple’s second mobile phone.
Steve’s already pointed out in his E71 review that the iPhone and the E71 in terms of physical dimensions are roughly identical, yet their functionality, and how they use the space is radically different – the input mechanism choice of either keyboard or multi-touch screen being the most obvious. And I’m of the opinion that this diversity in choice is good for the market. It’s good for every market – you’ve got multiple models of cars from auto manufacturers, different laptops from companies like Dell, different sizes and styles of books from publishers… variety is a sign of strength, not weakness. The inevitable ‘why can’t we have everything?’ posts on newsgroups didn’t take long in coming, and frankly I think they’re missing the point, both on a commercial point of view, and interestingly, also on an environmental point.
I don’t think we’ll ever see a mass-market smart phone that has every potential feature crammed into an affordable device. Something will always be lacking. There will always be a missing feature that stops you moving from your current (but older) perfect phone to the next model. That’s because that model is, in all likelihood, not aimed at you, but there’s enough commonality in the design and base functions to make it attractive to any 'smart phone user' (sic). The constant need to have the latest model is blinding some to the benefits of the model you have, not the model the press says you should have.
The one phone that is perceived by many to (be about to) do everything, the iPhone 3G, has its own discrepancies to some, notably in the poor camera and mysterious lack of video capture. It’s also worth remembering that while the iPhone might be just one device that [allegedly] does everything for its users, the user-base of the iPhone is probably equivalent to the user base of just one Nokia S60 device. The problem, at least for the analysts, is that there is no direct equivalent device out there for the iPhone – in the same way that there is no direct equivalent of an N95, E71, Blackberry or Palm Treo.
All the models excel at different things, they are all geared towards a slightly different segment of the market, and I suspect the addressable user base (as opposed to the actual installed base) of each device will be roughly similar. The fact that these user bases have significant crossover is a testament to just how flexible and customizable the current crop of smartphones is.
The argument of whether it is correct to build one device where each user only utilizes (perhaps a different) 65% of the capability of the device, or to build a number of devices where the users will use 95% of a smaller feature set has an obvious answer. Unfortunately the obvious answer is a different answer depending on your view. Power users want everything, every last drop of performance and feature, even if they’re only going to use it for five minutes every year. But manufacturers presented with the bill of materials for the handset know that knocking out the infrequently used areas can massively reduce the unit cost of the device; and therefore provide a better balance of lower priced phones and profit to the company.
Until users start building their own phones, the targeting of devices with a perceived subset of features will continue.
And long may it continue – partly because it’s nice to have a phone where you do use everything, partly because carrying too many features (the 65% scenario above) is just wasteful on your memory, storage or battery, and partly because in the current climate, we shouldn’t be wasting the Earth’s resources building tens of millions of extra accelerometer circuits in order to force them onto every mobile phone user - just in case.
-- Ewan Spence, June 2008
Published by Ewan Spence at 13:25 BST, June 17th 2008
Categories: Comment
Platforms: General
Feature Discussion
The key phrase is "perhaps a different 65%". Even if most people don't use all their phone's capabilities, the parts people do use will vary greatly from person to person so it's often worth including as many capabilities as possible. The capabilities you use may also vary over time, and if the phone is sold on the next user may use it in a completely different way.
To use an analogy: if you buy a dictionary you are unlikely to ever read most of it, but that doesn't mean that most of it is wasted. The words you look up are unlikely to be the same as the words someone else does, so it's important that all of them are present.
This old article mentions ryan airs cost cutting initiative of banning their staff from charging phones at work.
[url]http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2005/apr/23/theairlineindustry.transportintheuk[/url]
Estimated at 1.4p per charge (and around £28 if the entire company charged their phones at once).
Given this sort of power consumption. It's unlikely that charging times will be high up on environmental legislation or even the budget of a house holder conscious of rising utility bills.
Vestigial organs are common in mobile phones/consumer electronics. Components are re-used in different ways across the portfolio of products. You would be amazed at how many phones ship with 3D accelerator hardware but lack the s/w to drive it. Or hardware encryption, which can't be used due to crypto-export laws.
It's an easy decision to add something to a product, but a ballsy decision to remove it. Look how long Fax stuck around on mobile.
Nokia in general seem incapable of removing stuff and redesigning for a particular user. It's assembly by component.
The problem with the swiss army knife approach is that managers are happy to tick the box that a feature is there, but it can be really substandard.
The calculator is good example. You don't use it often but when you need to calculate the restaurant bill you want it to work simply and perfectly.
But s60 calc sucks like ass cancer.
If Nokia were designing a phone for elderly, visually impaired arthritic people - rather than a design such as Raku Raku, [url]http://www.nttdocomo.co.jp/product/easy_phone/simple/index.html[/url].
They would release the same software with an extra "blind cripple app" on the menu.
Considering how many anthropologist and future strategist Nokia have on their payrole these days, you would expect finer grained differentiation/segmentation rather than a killer-monster-phone approach.
My point is, i would rather the crappy calc was not included because it's half arsed - then I could instantly see the value in a download.
The fact that nokia include calc means that 99% of customers will never look elsewhere, i.e they have set a very low expectation of what a calc should be like.
I use calcium now, which is great.
[url]http://www.mtvoid.com/calcium/[/url]
Yes, there will be competition in the future. Nokia "owned" smartphones from the decline of the Treo to the iphone, but they are not going to "own" the smartphone market going forward.
The problem for Nokia is they can do volume, but they are not going to sell high-margin. That is what happened to Palm (they are having success with $99 phone but not $500 phones).
[/quote] [URL="http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/08/06/06/apple_now_the_worlds_no_3_smartphone_vendor.html"]Look here [/URL]for some figures on just Q1, then you can delete your "I think" and put the exact figure if you don't agree.
[quote]
The problem for Nokia is they can do volume, but they are not going to sell high-margin. That is what happened to Palm (they are having success with $99 phone but not $500 phones).[/quote]
Then [URL="http://www.nokia.com/A4984289"]look here for the margin of the company during 2007 operations[/URL]. That is a healthy margin, so I don't know which company you are really referring to?
Iphone is NOT a smartphone. As steve jobs puts it, 'its a phone that's smart'. To get counted as a smartphone it would have to provide a lot of freedom for customization and it would have to be 'open to new features' which, quite frankly, would never happen. :tongue:
Before you start talking about that copy of Download!, keep in mind that even series 40s take java but still don't get counted as smartphones. Lets discuss this when (if ever, lol) iphone starts taking java, python, .net etc apps.
I think in today's phones the overlapping area of similar features as way too big. I just checked the other day: on the Nokia website there are 78 phone models currently available. but if you compare those devices you would be struggling to find more than 5 that actually stand out for a particularly good reason - everything else is the same boring stuff in different clothing.
as the article said: variety is good. but it should be real variety, not just "a paintjob"
The link you provide quotes A gartner study. I'm not comparing all Nokia S60 sales to iphone sales, I am comparing E and N series sales to iphone sales.
The apple numbers I've seen have suggested 3.4 million iphones sold in 2007, and probably about the same amount sold in the first half of 2008. Remember the iphone only came in during the 2Q of 2007, so you're looking at partial numbers for 2007.
I've not seen a hard number for the number of N and E series handsets, but I have seen the six million number bandied about.
I love it you ignore the Ipod touch -- the same platform -- that you can get if you just want wifi data and not voice. Ipod sales in 2007 were 22 million; if only 10% were ipod touch sales that is another 2.2 million platform users. Already, the iphone/touch platform is approaching the same size as the entire installed base of N and E series. Who would you rather develop for?
Nokia had a great margin in 2007, but it is 2008 and continuing that Apple will eat away their profit share. What does Nokia do? Waste 9 billion on Nav and faill to defend their high margin products.
Windows Mobile has the worst selection but the best synchronisation.
I'm not sure about blackberry.
Apple fanboys stop being trolls.
BTW, the n95 was released April 2007.
I don't want to start a long discussion on the iPhone vs rest of the world, but financial figures are not marketing material...that is, there should only be one story based on these figures and here everyone is giving his/her own interpretation...
Anyway, Apple and Nokia are two very successful companies and I'm sure we don't need to find out here who has the longest pen*s...oops, I meant the most successful product.
In terms of content, while Nav remains the only potential killer app for Nokia, apple has been wiping everyone's ass with music sales. Content will migrate where it can. The question is generating revenue through content -- which only Apple has been successful at.
Apple's weak point is developer realations; they can be real pains there and might screw up the next killer app for mobile. That alone may be a saving grace for Nokia. Also build quality; iphone has terrible phone reception although people in the US tend to blame AT&T rather than Apple.
You're mixing two things. The 10 million figure was for N-Series devices. the 79 euros figure is the average for *all* devices (i.e., 115 million in Q1). If iPhone/iTouch is being compared to N-Series/E-Series devices, then the average sales price that you should be referring to is the average for *those* devices, no?
And if mobiles are now a commodity and money are somewhere else, who is in the best position to beat them all and rule the world? :)
Jokes aside, I wish I was able to predict who's going to lead the smartphone market in 3 years time but I cannot. Reality is that I would like Nokia to still lead it but it's a very tough market out there and other companies are serious contenders
Someone snapping at your heels is good incentive to push out better models.
But Apple is never going to get anywhere near Nokia. Why should they? Apple has always been niche, and they are making a very healthy profit on the iphone, and doubtless will on the 3G iphone. They simply wont flood the market with cheaper models, and so will never get near any sort of majority.
What Apple has learned to do is steal profit share, rather than just market share. They did that with laptops, did it with MP3, and now are trying to do it with phones. I agree they won't be as successful as they were with the ipod, but I could easily see a situation in two years where apple has 60% to 80% of the "high end" or smartphone market. Nokia either needs to start a price war, or really bulk up on functionality.
Since the original iphone launch, while HTC, Samsung etc...has steal iphone ideas, built their own interface on top WM6 and staying close to the game. No improvement is happening out of UIQ, no touchscreen is out of S60 (yes, there is one coming...but when?). What are UIQ design team doing? Playing PS3 all day? UIQ is looking like going out of market. "Neglect" is the word is what come to my mind. Nokia needs finger friendly touch screen fast!
Ray
For mac fanboys, a phone without buttons is cool.
For Gamers, no buttons = no deal.
Next time before somebody says "touch screen, finger friendly UI is where the market is going" he should realize there is something called N-gage.
Screen of E71 is SMALL.... Keyboard layout (both in E61i and E71) is not good ... the keys QAZ are straight below each other, a slightly indented and a Shift key before Z key would have been nice.
With 2.8 screen size, I would be looking at 640 x 480 screen. A VGA secondary camera or 1.3 MP secondary camera would be a desirable plus.... as against the existing QCIF secondary camera.
Here are my QWERTY N-Series Specifications
1) Size & Shape - E61i -- Keyboard, laid in natural keyboard format (as against the existing QAZ keys in line left aligned)
2) Battery - E61i (1500 mAH of pure power) A batter battery would be even nicer...
3) 2.8 or 3 inch 640 x 480 VGA Screen with 16 M Colors.
4) A Scroll Wheel (mouse like) (similar to BB 8310)
5) 64/32 GB internal memory with 2 additional MicroSD card slots (watchful iPhone 2)
6) existing camera of N82 with flash is SUPERB, but 7 or 8 MP with optical zoom will be a dream.
7) This is basically over and above what all is offered by N82 .. so what ever N82 has... is already included in.
One Phone for ALL... sure.. it's Possible
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